This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to the brand new ESPN deal. We’re back to getting smaller prize pools with this event but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top prize are always my favorite competitions to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will find a fantastic amount of play in cash games. Here are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I believe that you can stack the main event here as well, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must play of the two. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score tremendously and according to Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even have a top floor, but he probably has the maximum ceiling onto the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP play of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is almost a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that occurs we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s ownership will go down due to this and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even require a end to score 100+ points and that’s why I like him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we’re getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to become one of the most well-known underdogs on the card, but it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be so not just could he have the win, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he can win this battle then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I think he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style that I do not see him getting more than 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus much in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. If he scores around that area again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP as the other men in that $9k range likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my private approaches & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every single fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)
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